Kalshi

XRP Price Above $2.17 at December 29 5pm EST Shows 18 Percent Probability on Kalshi

Thomas Morrow

29 Dec 2025 — 4 min read

The Kalshi prediction market currently prices XRP reaching $2.17 or higher by 5pm EST on December 29, 2025 at 18 percent probability. This represents a gap of approximately 17 percent from XRP's current price of $1.85, requiring rapid appreciation within a compressed timeframe. The market reflects broader headwinds facing the cryptocurrency throughout December 2025.

XRP has declined 15.8 percent during December alone, erasing approximately $0.29 from its value. The token peaked at $3.66 in July 2025 following positive regulatory developments and renewed institutional interest, but has since retreated 44 percent from that high. Current trading volume remains elevated at 76 percent above average during recent sessions, though this activity has primarily consisted of sellers defending resistance levels rather than buyers pushing prices higher.

The market structure on Kalshi reflects what technical analysts observe in price charts. XRP consistently faces selling pressure near $1.90 to $1.91, creating a resistance zone that has rejected multiple breakout attempts. Meanwhile, buyers have provided support near $1.86 to $1.87, preventing further immediate decline. This narrow range has persisted for several days, creating what traders describe as a consolidation pattern that typically precedes a more decisive move in either direction.

What factors explain the low probability assessment for XRP crossing $2.17 today

The 18 percent probability reflects multiple technical and fundamental barriers. XRP would need to clear immediate resistance at $1.90, then overcome additional selling pressure at levels including $1.95, $2.00, and $2.10 before reaching the $2.17 threshold. Each of these levels has acted as a point where sellers have entered the market during recent weeks.

Market sentiment indicators show extreme fear at 24 on the Fear and Greed Index. This reading typically corresponds with risk aversion across cryptocurrency markets, making rapid price appreciation less likely. The Relative Strength Index stands at 41.48, placing XRP in neutral territory but closer to oversold than overbought conditions. Moving averages present a mixed picture, with the 50-day moving average currently above the price and falling on daily timeframes, while the 200-day moving average has declined since late November.

Trading patterns over the past week reinforce the bearish setup. Price tested $1.88 on December 28 during heightened volume but quickly retreated to $1.86 as supply entered the market. The session saw 75.3 million XRP change hands during the rejection, approximately 76 percent above typical intraday flow. This pattern of increased volume during downward moves rather than upward pushes suggests distribution rather than accumulation.

How does institutional activity through ETFs affect market dynamics

Institutional investors continue adding exposure through XRP exchange-traded funds despite price weakness. Total assets held in XRP ETFs reached $1.25 billion as of December 25, with investors adding $8.19 million in recent sessions. The products have recorded seven consecutive weeks of inflows, demonstrating sustained institutional interest even as retail sentiment remains cautious.

This divergence between ETF flows and spot price action creates what analysts describe as an absorptive pattern. Professional investors appear willing to accumulate at current levels for longer-term positioning, while short-term traders continue selling into rallies. The ETF structure removes custody and compliance friction for institutions, making it a preferred vehicle for gaining exposure without directly holding the cryptocurrency.

The steady ETF bid provides a stabilizing force that has prevented XRP from experiencing the kind of rapid decline seen in other cryptocurrencies during recent market stress. However, it has not generated sufficient buying pressure to drive immediate price recovery. The gap between institutional accumulation and spot market performance suggests a disconnect between longer-term positioning and near-term price expectations.

What conditions would need to change for XRP to reach the threshold

Reaching $2.17 by 5pm EST would require a catalyst capable of shifting market structure within hours. Historical precedent shows that cryptocurrency markets can move rapidly when key technical levels break with sufficient volume. XRP experienced multiple days during its July rally where it gained 15 to 20 percent, demonstrating that such moves remain within the realm of possibility even if currently improbable.

A decisive break above the $1.90 resistance with sustained volume would represent the first requirement. This would need to trigger short covering from traders positioned for continued weakness, creating upward momentum. Following that, clearing $2.00 would be psychologically important, as round numbers often act as decision points where market participants reassess their positions.

External factors that could serve as catalysts include unexpected positive regulatory developments, major institutional announcements, or broader cryptocurrency market strength led by Bitcoin. The correlation between XRP and Bitcoin remains positive at 0.042 with top cryptocurrencies, meaning a strong move higher in Bitcoin could provide tailwinds. However, Bitcoin itself has struggled to maintain momentum above $110,000 recently, limiting this potential support.

The more likely scenario reflected in the 82 percent probability for staying below $2.17 assumes continuation of current trading patterns. If the $1.86 support fails, XRP faces potential decline toward $1.77 to $1.80, where prior buying activity has established demand. Technical analysis suggests the next major decision point will come as XRP approaches the apex of its consolidation pattern, likely requiring more time than the few hours remaining before the market settles.