Prediction markets signal a high probability of U.S. federal government restrictions on DeepSeek access coming into effect by spring 2025, with market data showing traders pricing in over 80% likelihood of implementation. Based on Polymarket trading between January 24-February 10, 2025, the two most probable scenarios are a ban taking effect before March 31 or a slightly delayed rollout by June 2025.

Multiple federal agencies have already begun preparations, according to trader DFK who noted: "It's happening all over the world and just here. Forbidding government employees to use foreign data collection app is common sense and has nothing to do with a public ban of the AI models."

The market's confidence appears supported by reports that several federal agencies have instructed employees against accessing DeepSeek and other AI models. A Bloomberg report cited by traders mentions cybersecurity firms like NetSkope and Zscaler already blocking access to these applications.

However, some market participants question the timeline. As trader TheMoonMaster pointed out: "Why is the estimated end date on June 30 when the valid period is only until March 31? Just curious." This reflects ongoing uncertainty about the exact implementation schedule.

Trading patterns show steady volume with prices maintaining elevated levels above 0.80 USDC throughout the period. The sustained high prices suggest traders view executive action as highly probable, though exact timing remains debatable.

Technical considerations also factor into market sentiment. One trader noted that agencies would need time to establish proper cybersecurity protocols and data access restrictions. According to market discussion, the ban would likely start with federal employees before expanding to contractors and grant recipients.

A bearish perspective came from trader QuoteInKeto who argued: "There is only to make money faster. April is far away." This suggests some traders view current prices as potentially overvalued given the implementation timeline.

The prediction market data points to several key factors driving probability assessments:

• Existing agency-level restrictions already in place
• Multiple cybersecurity firms implementing blocks
• Historical precedent with similar technology restrictions
• Agency preparation time requirements

While the market shows strong conviction about eventual implementation, uncertainty remains around scope and timing. The data suggests traders should monitor agency announcements and cybersecurity firm actions for signals about implementation pace.