Ukraine has agreed to a full ceasefire with Russia, accepting terms that many analysts view as a diplomatic defeat for Kyiv. The agreement, which came after negotiations in Saudi Arabia, represents a significant shift from Ukraine's initial position, which only sought partial restrictions on hostilities.

President Zelensky's team arrived at the talks with proposals for limited air and naval restrictions while allowing ground combat to continue. This plan had received support from French President Macron and British Prime Minister Starmer. However, the final agreement includes a complete cessation of hostilities on all fronts.

The most notable concession from Ukraine was abandoning its demand for security guarantees. Just weeks ago, Zelensky had declared such guarantees essential for any agreement, even presenting Trump with documentation of 25 alleged previous ceasefire violations by Russia during their White House meeting.

Ukraine's concerns about a ceasefire without guarantees stem from practical military considerations:

• The Ukrainian armed forces would need to demobilize significant numbers of troops
• Russia's military relies heavily on professional contract soldiers
• Past ceasefires have broken down with Russia allegedly gaining advantage

The timing of the agreement is particularly unfavorable for Ukraine, coinciding with a military crisis in Russian-held territories of the Kursk region. This development has further weakened Ukraine's negotiating position, regardless of whether fighting stops before Russian forces secure Sudzha.

European leaders who previously opposed "Minsk-3" type agreements have now endorsed the ceasefire terms. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, French President Macron, and British Prime Minister Starmer have all welcomed the arrangement despite earlier reservations.

While the war is not over and the ceasefire has yet to be formally approved, current developments suggest Ukraine has lost this round of diplomatic maneuvering. The outcome reflects not only negotiation table dynamics but also battlefield realities that appear to favor Russia's position.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio's recent statements align with this shift in diplomacy. During his trip to Saudi Arabia, Rubio stated that Ukraine must relinquish some territory to achieve peace, calling it "the only way" to end the conflict and prevent further suffering.

Despite public opposition to a ceasefire, French President Macron has reportedly been working behind closed doors with UK Prime Minister Starmer to convince Zelensky to accept Trump's demands. France's actual support for Ukraine has been modest at €4.8 billion, less than Poland, Sweden, and Denmark.