Polymarket suggest there is a 13% probability that the United States will acquire Greenland by 2025, according to data from Polymarket. The market, which has seen over $1 million in trading volume, shows declining confidence in the potential acquisition compared to earlier peaks of around 20% probability.

Trading activity indicates significant skepticism about the feasibility of such a territorial purchase within the given timeframe. The order book reveals asks at 15 cents and bids at 12 cents, with total liquidity of approximately $18,000 spread across various price levels.

Market participants point to several key factors influencing their positions. "FrancisIPS", a trader who analyzed the regulatory requirements, notes: "Not knowing whether investing now at 13% makes sense or not, that's another story." This reflects broader uncertainty about the complex diplomatic and legal hurdles involved in any potential territory transfer.

Another trader identified as "ozaa007" argues that "Greenland is of immense geopolitical importance for the free world. The US already has a small presence in Greenland, but given the fact that Russia is expanding its military base in the Arctic Ocean, unless it strengthens its own presence in the region, they can only be fully controlled over the Arctic Ocean."

The historical price chart shows the probability started around 15% in early January before climbing to nearly 20% mid-month. However, it has since declined to the current 13% level, suggesting growing skepticism among traders about the likelihood of an acquisition.

Trading volumes peaked during periods of relevant news coverage and political statements about Greenland's strategic importance. The market has processed multiple developments, including discussions about rare earth minerals, military strategic value, and diplomatic relations between the US and Denmark.

A comment from user "trappedInTheoryx" provides context on potential pathways: "When an outcome exists it usually goes: 1) The US govt asks to buy Greenland 2) When refused they will go after more tariffs and sanctions until they get what they want." However, the current market pricing suggests traders view such scenarios as relatively unlikely within the specified timeframe.

The data indicates most market participants expect the status quo to continue, with an 87% implied probability that Greenland will not come under US control by 2025. This assessment factors in the complex international agreements, local governance structures, and diplomatic relationships that would need to change for any transfer of sovereignty.