The Polymarket prediction market shows a 56% probability that Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will meet within the first 100 days after Trump's inauguration, with trading volume reaching $1.85 million as of February 10, 2025.

According to Polymarket's order book data, traders are placing significant liquidity on both sides of the market, with particularly high volume concentrated around the 50-60% probability range. The market has seen notable price swings between 45% and 60% over the past month.

"By looking at the order book one can see enormous liquidity being saved for limit purchases. The opposite holds for the sales side. This indicates that there is high volatility and likely a breakout due to the positive market response," commented trader ChristianHorvat in the market discussion.

Several market participants point to specific statements from both leaders that have influenced trading patterns. "Trump has publicly stated the meeting is being arranged. Putin is likely to accept any opportunity to meet," noted trader PolyWinner, analyzing the fundamental factors driving the market price.

However, some traders remain skeptical about the high probability. MrExit argues that "Without limit market manipulation this should be 70% plus. No 44% is totally overvalued," suggesting the current price may not fully reflect the underlying likelihood.

The market rules specify that it will resolve to "Yes" if Vladimir Putin meets with Donald Trump between December 19, 2024, and April 2025. The definition requires an in-person meeting, with phone calls or video conferences not qualifying for market resolution.

Trading activity increased significantly following reports about potential meeting locations, with Switzerland emerging as a possible venue according to multiple news sources cited in trader discussions. The market saw particularly high volume after statements from Trump confirming his willingness to meet "very quickly" with Putin.

"All indications point to this being an excellent risk/reward trade at current levels," commented trader Kefaga, while noting that historical precedent suggests "prices will respect past zones even if they were not accurate at all."

The market remains active with consistent daily trading volume, indicating strong ongoing interest from traders in predicting this significant geopolitical event. The probability has generally trended upward from initial levels around 45% when the market opened in December 2024.