Prediction markets assign a 64% probability to a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and former U.S. President Donald Trump within the first 100 days. This figure comes from Polymarket, where trading volume has reached $3,499,706 as of April 29, 2025. The market settles “Yes” if the two leaders meet in person between December 19, 2024, and April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, based on reports from credible news sources.

The sustained flow of capital reflects close attention to evolving diplomatic communications and preparatory discussions. These dynamics capture a consensus among many traders that a meeting is likely, even as uncertainties remain.

A trader using the handle RambaZamba offered a detailed view:
“Based on current diplomatic signals and preparatory talks, especially the readiness shown by both Trump and Putin and Saudi Arabia’s willingness to host, we estimate roughly a 65 to 70% chance that a Trump-Putin meeting will occur soon. I predict the meeting will be held on February 24, 2025.”

This perspective relies on observable leadership actions, host readiness, and external pressures related to the ongoing Ukraine conflict.

In contrast, another trader, Piffpaff, stated: “There is practically 0 chance they will meet anytime soon, if you understand things from the Russian side.”

This skeptical view represents a segment of the market that questions the timing and logistical requirements for such an encounter. The divergence in opinions contributes to the current market probability and highlights the range of expectations among participants.

The market operates with clear resolution criteria. If the leaders meet and interact face-to-face within the specified window, the outcome is recorded as “Yes.” Otherwise, it resolves as “No.” The high trading volume signals robust interest and readiness to adjust positions as new information becomes available. Traders follow updates such as official statements from Kremlin representatives and reports regarding preparatory talks in Saudi Arabia to refine their assessments.

The 64% probability reflects the aggregate expectations of the trading community. However, this figure does not guarantee that a meeting will occur. While many market participants lean toward a positive outcome, the uncertainties inherent in international diplomacy persist. Shifts in diplomatic plans or unforeseen global developments could quickly alter market sentiment.

For now, the market’s 64% figure represents a balance of optimism and skepticism among traders, providing a real-time measure of sentiment on one of today’s significant geopolitical questions.