Prediction markets on Polymarket show traders placing the highest probability on OpenSea's fully diluted valuation landing between $1-3 billion one day after launch, with a 23% likelihood. The second most probable outcome is no launch by July at 18%, according to current market prices.

The market has seen notable shifts in probability distributions since December, with the $1-3B valuation range consistently maintaining the lead position. The sub-$1B valuation scenario and the $5-10B range are tied at 16% probability each, while higher valuations of $10-15B and above $150B are seen as less likely at 4% and 3% respectively.

Trader nobodytechnology provided technical analysis, noting "memecoin took over NFTs as a point of interest this cycle by a significant margin," suggesting potential headwinds for NFT marketplace valuations. Another participant, Mundly, commented on user dynamics, stating "Udnerdaos just makes people hold them and continue farming their users."

Trading data reveals a balanced distribution across different price brackets:

• $1-3B valuation: Buy Yes 25¢, Buy No 76¢
• No launch by July: Buy Yes 20.5¢, Buy No 81.0¢
• <$1B valuation: Buy Yes 21¢, Buy No 55¢
• $5-10B valuation: Buy Yes 16¢, Buy No 85¢

The market structure shows active trading across multiple valuation brackets, with most liquidity concentrated in the lower valuation ranges. The spread between buy and sell positions suggests significant uncertainty about OpenSea's launch valuation, with traders showing skepticism toward higher valuation scenarios.

The data points to a market consensus forming around a more conservative valuation range compared to previous NFT marketplace launches. The relatively high probability of no launch by July (18%) also reflects uncertainty about the timing of OpenSea's market debut.