MIT Study Reveals Current AI Systems Can Replace Nearly 12 Percent of American Workers

According to CNBC, researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology released findings on November 26, 2025, showing that artificial intelligence can already replace 11.7% of the U.S. labor market. The research, produced in collaboration with Oak Ridge National Laboratory, represents approximately $1.2 trillion in wages across finance, healthcare and professional services. The study uses a labor simulation tool called the Iceberg Index, which models 151 million American workers as individual agents. Each worker is categorized by skills, tasks, occupation and location across more than 32,000 skills in 923 occupations spanning 3,000 counties.

The visible disruption in tech, computing and information technology represents only 2.2% of total wage exposure, or about $211 billion. The larger share includes routine functions in human resources, logistics, finance and office administration. These areas total the remaining $1 trillion in potentially affected wages. Prasanna Balaprakash, director at Oak Ridge National Laboratory and co-leader of the research, described the tool as creating a digital twin for the U.S. labor market.

The Index does not predict specific job losses or timelines. Instead, it provides a skills-centered snapshot of what current AI systems can already perform. Three states have partnered with the researchers to test the platform. Tennessee cited the Iceberg Index in its official AI Workforce Action Plan released in November 2025. Utah and North Carolina are preparing similar reports based on the model's findings.

Why This Matters

The research challenges common assumptions about AI's geographic impact. Traditional forecasts suggested automation would concentrate in coastal technology centers. The Iceberg Index simulations show exposed occupations spread across all 50 states, including rural and inland regions. North Carolina state Senator DeAndrea Salvador, who has worked with MIT on the project, said the tool allows analysis down to specific census blocks. This level of detail helps identify which skills are currently in use and their likelihood of automation.

Fortune reports that the 11.7% figure reflects both technical capability and economic feasibility. Earlier MIT research found that fully replacing human workers with AI remained too expensive or impractical for many roles. However, separate analysis from MIT Sloan concluded that AI exposure from 2010 to 2023 did not lead to broad net job losses. Many adopting firms experienced faster revenue and employment growth during this period.

The platform allows policymakers to test different scenarios before committing training dollars or infrastructure spending. State officials can adjust training programs or shift workforce investments to predict effects on local employment and gross domestic product. This capability matters as governments prepare billion-dollar reskilling initiatives without clear data on where disruption will occur.

Industry Implications

The financial services and professional sectors face different pressures than previous automation waves. Goldman Sachs estimates that if current AI use cases expanded across the economy, just 2.5% of U.S. employment would be at risk of displacement. The investment bank projects unemployment will increase by half a percentage point during the transition period as displaced workers seek new positions. Computer programmers, accountants, auditors, legal assistants and customer service representatives face higher displacement risk.

PwC's 2025 Global AI Jobs Barometer analyzed nearly one billion job advertisements from six continents. The research found that AI-exposed industries experienced accelerated revenue growth since 2022, when ChatGPT's launch awakened public interest. Workers in the same job with AI skills command a wage premium that increased from 25% in 2024 to a higher level in 2025. The analysis shows 60% of industries are increasing AI usage, including sectors like mining and agriculture.

World Economic Forum data indicates 40% of employers expect to reduce their workforce where AI can automate tasks. Technology overall is projected as the most disruptive force in the labor market. AI and information processing trends are expected to create 11 million jobs while displacing nine million others through the end of this decade. Entry-level roles face particular vulnerability, with nearly 50 million U.S. jobs affected in coming years.

Further Reading

For deeper insights into global adoption trends, our Alternative Financial Systems Index tracks regulatory frameworks and adoption metrics across 50 countries. The index provides comparative analysis of how different jurisdictions approach emerging technologies and their workforce implications.