Prediction markets on Polymarket signal a low 14% probability that MicroStrategy will sell any of its Bitcoin holdings by December 31, 2025, suggesting traders expect the company to maintain its long-term holding strategy. The market data reveals an 86% confidence level that MicroStrategy will continue its Bitcoin accumulation policy through the end of 2025.

The probability chart shows a significant decline from early January, followed by sustained low levels throughout the month. Trading volumes indicate strong conviction in the "No" position, with 5,686.00 shares traded at 11¢ ($900.60) and 1,859.00 shares at 12¢ ($277.54). The "Yes" side shows smaller positions, with notable trades of 2,160.00 shares at 15¢ ($853.09).

Trader spackling03 expressed a firm stance on the company's strategy, stating "you do not sell your bitcoin," while Occult offered context on the company's past behavior: "He won't sell but hovering for 12 months is kinda crazy." A trader named Evan shared a news link supporting the holding thesis.

Market activity breakdown:

• 6.00 shares at 20¢ ($772.29)
• 100.00 shares at 16¢ ($871.09)
• 3,353.35 shares at 15¢ ($507.49)
• 369.70 shares at 13¢ ($50.66)

The order book structure shows concentrated liquidity on the bearish side, with larger volume positions betting against any Bitcoin sales. Recent trading patterns and price action suggest market participants view MicroStrategy's Bitcoin holdings as a core long-term strategy rather than a tactical position.

The low 14% probability reflects traders' assessment that MicroStrategy's public statements and past behavior align with a multi-year holding strategy, despite market volatility and external pressures. The data points to a strong market consensus that the company will maintain its Bitcoin position through 2025.