McConnell Shows 10% Chance to Vote for Tulsi Gabbard Confirmation According to Polymarket
Polymarket's latest data on "Which Senators will vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard?" shows Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell with just a 10% probability of voting in favor, while Susan Collins, Cynthia Lummis, and Joni Ernst each demonstrate 99% likelihood of supporting the confirmation.
The market, which will resolve to "Yes" if Mitch McConnell votes to confirm Tulsi Gabbard in the first roll-call vote, currently prices "Yes" at 10.2¢ and "No" at 89.8¢.
Among other Republican senators tracked by the market, Bill Cassidy shows 98% probability of voting in favor, while Lisa Murkowski and John Cornyn stand at 68% and 63% respectively. Bernie Sanders has the lowest probability at 4%, with John Fetterman below 1%.
"Fetterman's vote is not far more likely than McConnell here, odds are stuck," noted trader JustMax on the market discussion board, explaining the dynamics behind the low probabilities for both senators.
Market participant Kyin provided additional context: "He needs not to just pull off attention whore and also to do 180 degree pivot to get here but he's corrupt enough got paid a lot by the corrupt media just for those soundbites, also people buying fetterman are delusional, the only possible vote from him is Nk."
The trading activity suggests strong conviction in the outcomes for Collins, Lummis, and Ernst, with their probabilities remaining stable at 99%. Meanwhile, McConnell's market has seen more discussion and analysis, reflecting uncertainty about his final position.
Trader Irahad001 commented on the broader political context: "John Fetterman - I fully support Trump's plan to send US troops to take over Gaza's oil #[AgendaDC]." This reflects the complex political calculations influencing voting predictions.
The market data comes from Polymarket's trading platform, with all probabilities based on current market prices. The discussion and analysis reflect trader sentiments as captured in the market's comment section.
Market activity shows sustained confidence in the high-probability outcomes for several Republican senators, while maintaining skepticism about McConnell's support. The stark difference between McConnell's 10% and other Republican senators' higher probabilities suggests traders see significant factors influencing his potential opposition.
