Polymarket assign a 29% probability that the Russia-Ukraine war will end within 90 days of a potential Trump presidency, according to Polymarket data. The market shows a 71% likelihood that the conflict will continue beyond this timeframe, with significant trading volume suggesting strong conviction in these probabilities.

Trading activity has seen over $80,000 in total volume, with notable price movements from early peaks of around 50% in November to the current 29% level. The order book reveals active trading in the 25-32% range, with substantial positions taken on both sides of the market.

Trader Lilium, commenting on current market dynamics, noted: "The current odds reflect that Putin wants to drag out the war until 2027 to wait for some watershed event which will force US to accept Russia's terms. One of such events was Trump being re-elected."

A contrasting perspective comes from trader cuceppe who points to broader economic factors: "Russian propaganda accounts on X told me russia has infinite resources money tanks and manpower, putin won't take a deal." This view aligns with the majority position in the market pricing a longer continuation of the conflict.

The trading data shows significant institutional involvement, with individual trades reaching values of over $20,000. Current market depth indicates resistance at the 32% level, with support forming around 27%, suggesting a relatively stable consensus on probabilities.

MrFranko, another active trader, referenced recent developments: "Zelenskyy today: 'Ukraine wants to end the war this year, but on condition that there are serious security guarantees' is about 0 chances of a ceasefire in 90 days."

Market volume analysis reveals concentrated activity in the 28-30% range, with over 27,000 shares traded at these levels. The spread between bid and ask prices remains tight at around 1%, suggesting high market liquidity and efficient price discovery.

The prediction market data suggests that while a swift resolution to the conflict under a potential Trump presidency remains possible, traders view it as a lower probability outcome. The sustained trading volume at current levels indicates strong market conviction in these odds, though the 29% probability shows the scenario cannot be completely dismissed.