Kalshi

Kalshi ADP Employment Market Shows 60% Odds of Rebound After November Decline

George Cranston

07 Jan 2026 — 2 min read

The December 2025 ADP Employment Report releases today at 8:15 AM Eastern Time. Kalshi prediction markets price a modest recovery near consensus forecasts of 45,000 jobs added. This would reverse November's 32,000 job loss, the largest monthly decline since March 2023.

The market reflects expectations shaped by weekly employment signals. Four-week averages showed 11,500 jobs added per week through early December. This follows a recovery from mid-November when weekly gains stood at just 4,750 jobs. The November monthly report revealed small businesses cut 120,000 positions while medium and large firms added a combined 90,000 jobs.

Consensus among economists points to December job additions between 40,000 and 50,000. The official Bureau of Labor Statistics nonfarm payroll report follows on Friday, January 9, with expectations near 55,000 total jobs. Markets watch both releases for signals on Federal Reserve policy direction and economic momentum heading into 2026.

What explains the volatility in recent ADP reports?

The second half of 2025 brought choppy employment data. July started with 143,000 jobs added, but August dropped to 89,000. September and November both recorded losses of 32,000 jobs each. October offered a brief rebound with 47,000 additions before November's decline returned.

Small establishments drove November's weakness with a 120,000 job drop. Manufacturing shed 18,000 positions, professional services lost 26,000, and information cut 20,000. Education and health services provided the sole bright spot with 33,000 additions. Construction and financial activities each lost 9,000 positions.

ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson attributes the pattern to cautious consumers and an uncertain economic environment. Pay growth has remained flat near 4.4% for workers staying in their roles. Those changing jobs saw wage increases of 6.3%, down from 6.7% in October.

How reliable is ADP data for predicting official payroll numbers?

The ADP National Employment Report tracks over 26 million private sector employees through actual payroll data. It releases two days before the government's official employment report. This timing makes it a watched indicator for market participants and policymakers.

Historical correlation between ADP and official nonfarm payrolls has proven erratic. The reports sometimes diverge by tens of thousands of jobs. ADP focuses exclusively on private sector employment, excluding government positions. The official BLS report covers both public and private workers.

ADP began publishing weekly employment estimates in 2025 through its NER Pulse report. These updates provide higher frequency signals but carry a two-week data lag. The preliminary weekly numbers can shift as more complete information arrives. Markets typically use ADP to refine expectations rather than as a precise forecast.

What does the December data mean for 2026 economic outlook?

December marks the beginning of a crucial period for labor market assessment. The consensus forecast of 45,000 jobs would represent modest but positive growth. This would end a pattern where two of the last six months showed job losses.

Weekly data through early December suggested hiring remained in positive territory for three consecutive weeks. The four-week moving average of 11,500 jobs indicates a gradual recovery pace. This level sits well below the 100,000-plus monthly gains typical of strong economic expansion.

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times in 2025. Labor market strength factors into 2026 policy decisions. Current prediction markets show 85% odds the Fed maintains rates at the January meeting. Pay growth trends suggest inflation pressures from wages have stabilized near 4.4% annual increases.