CNBC reports that Eli Lilly's daily obesity pill could still compete effectively in the weight loss drug market. The assessment comes after the company released late-stage trial data in early August 2025 that disappointed Wall Street expectations. Eli Lilly's oral drug, orforglipron, caused 12.4% weight loss at 72 weeks in the ATTAIN-1 trial. This fell short of the 15% reduction analysts had hoped for and came below Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide results.

The pill's weight loss was 11.2% when analyzing all patients regardless of discontinuations. About 10.3% of patients taking the highest dose discontinued treatment due to side effects. These were mainly gastrointestinal issues such as nausea and vomiting, with severity rated as mild to moderate. Eli Lilly shares fell 13% when the trial results were announced but recovered 12% afterward. CEO David Ricks told CNBC the company hopes to launch the pill globally "this time next year."

Market Position Remains Strong Despite Performance Gap

The oral obesity pill market represents a major opportunity within the broader weight loss drug sector. Goldman Sachs forecasts daily oral pills will capture 24% of the 2030 global weight loss drug market, worth approximately $22 billion of a total $95 billion market. The investment bank expects Eli Lilly's pill to secure a 60% share of the daily oral segment by 2030, generating roughly $13.6 billion in revenue.

This projection positions orforglipron ahead of competitors despite recent trial disappointments. Patients and healthcare providers have expressed strong preference for oral alternatives to current weekly injections. The pills address significant supply shortages and access barriers created by expensive injection treatments. Many health plans in the United States still exclude obesity treatments from coverage, making pricing a key factor in market success.

Competitive Landscape Favors First Movers In Oral Segment

The race for oral obesity treatments has intensified across the pharmaceutical industry. PR Newswire confirmed in May 2025 that the FDA accepted Novo Nordisk's application for oral semaglutide 25mg, which would become the first oral GLP-1 treatment approved for chronic weight management. The Danish company expects a regulatory decision in the fourth quarter of 2025, potentially securing first-to-market advantage.

However, competitive dynamics extend beyond efficacy alone. Eli Lilly's orforglipron offers several potential advantages over Novo Nordisk's oral drug. The Eli Lilly pill requires no dietary restrictions, unlike Novo Nordisk's version which must be taken on an empty stomach with specific timing requirements. Manufacturing differences also favor Eli Lilly's small-molecule approach over Novo Nordisk's more complex peptide formulation.

Other competitors have struggled to match established players. CNBC reports that Viking Therapeutics shares fell 40% in August 2025 after releasing disappointing midstage trial data for its obesity pill. Viking's drug showed 12.2% weight loss but had a 28% discontinuation rate over just 13 weeks, compared to 25% for Eli Lilly's pill over 72 weeks. The setback reinforces the dominance of Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk in developing viable oral alternatives.

Further Reading

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