The likelihood of an East Coast port strike in January 2025 has fallen to just 1%, according to Polymarket prediction markets data, even as the master contract between the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) and East Coast port operators approaches its January 2025 expiration date.

Trading data from Polymarket shows the market's assessment of strike probability has declined significantly from earlier peaks of around 40% in December. Current trading volumes indicate substantial conviction in this view, with over 1,800 shares traded at prices reflecting the low probability outcome.

The order book displays asymmetric positioning, with buyers willing to pay up to $0.14 per share for a potential strike outcome, while sellers are offering positions at $0.01, creating a wide spread that suggests uncertainty remains in the market despite the low overall probability.

A trader identified as CamFantastic noted that while negotiations appeared stalled in November, recent developments point to progress: "Both the unions and port operators have shown willingness to compromise. The operational impact of any potential strike would be more disruptive than either party prefers."

Contrasting this optimistic view, trader WildIsh questioned the market's confidence, simply asking "source?" - reflecting skepticism about the low probability assessment given the stakes involved.

Trading volume data shows concentrated activity in the $0.02-0.04 range, with over 2,500 shares exchanged at these levels, suggesting traders are pricing in a very low but non-zero chance of industrial action. The market has maintained consistent liquidity, with both buy and sell orders readily available across price points.

Historical price movement indicates the probability peaked in early December before steadily declining through the end of 2024. This trajectory aligns with comments from MrManning who observed: "Tariffs are workable, leaving the Union with little leverage. A Republican president likely left in office during a second term with no political constraints. This strike is unlikely to materialize."

The prediction market data suggests that while the contract expiration creates potential for labor disruption, market participants view a negotiated resolution as highly probable. The low 1% probability indicates traders expect business continuity at East Coast ports through January, though the persistence of some buying interest at higher prices shows the risk has not been completely eliminated.