According to Polymarket prediction data, traders are pricing a 48% probability that a Dogecoin ETF will receive SEC approval by December 31, 2025. The market has seen $1,952.17 in trading volume for the "Yes" position at 54¢ per share, while the opposing view trades at 46¢, suggesting significant uncertainty about the outcome.

The probability chart shows several notable price movements since the market's inception. A sharp decline occurred in early January, followed by a period of stability around the 35% level. The market then experienced a significant uptick in late January, pushing the probability to approximately 48%. Trading activity reveals a balanced order book, with 43.47 shares positioned at 54¢ on the buy side and similar volumes around the 45-46¢ range.

Market participant myshake-22988 commented, "Filing for DOGE ETF has been just done," providing context for recent market movements. Another trader, MageGold, questioned "how about sol?" suggesting broader interest in cryptocurrency ETF developments.

Trading volume analysis shows concentrated activity in specific price ranges:

• 500 shares traded at 51¢ ($1,528.70 total)
• 500 shares at 49¢ ($1,073.70)
• 1,619.80 shares at 48¢ ($783.70)
• 1,277.84 shares at 46¢ ($880.66)
• 1,195.45 shares at 44¢ ($1,359.50)

The market's structure includes a binary resolution mechanism, with the outcome determined by whether any Dogecoin ETF receives SEC approval within the specified timeframe. The current spread between buy and sell positions suggests traders remain divided on the likelihood of approval, with neither side showing overwhelming conviction in their position.

Analysis of the order book depth indicates balanced liquidity on both sides, with slightly more volume concentrated in the 44-46¢ range, suggesting a cautious bearish bias among larger traders despite the overall market probability favoring approval.