Polymarket prediction data shows Daniel Noboa as the frontrunner in Ecuador's upcoming presidential election with a 66% probability of winning, while Luisa González trails at 34%, based on $2,674,316 in trading volume as of February 2025.

The market's price chart reveals a steady upward trend for Noboa over recent weeks, while González's probability has declined from earlier highs. Other candidates, including Jan Topón and Gustavo Jalch, each show less than 1% probability of victory.

"I think we will win, but these odds look more like those of non-competitive elections in repressive countries. That's not the only way you can win money on Gonzalez right now at these odds," noted trader Ferrim, suggesting the current spread might overstate Noboa's advantage.

Market participants point to specific electoral dynamics affecting prices. "Only people are starting to realize Luisa's value, an easy search in the polling would show you info her direction," commented trader ecuadorianproy, suggesting polling data supports a more competitive race.

The Polymarket rules specify that the election is scheduled for February 9, 2025, with a potential second round if needed. The market will resolve based on official results from Ecuador's National Electoral Council.

Trading activity has increased as the election approaches, with significant price movements occurring after recent polling data releases. ScalpMurks observed: "This is looking good as all the remaining votes are from heavily Luisa areas."

However, some traders express skepticism about the current probabilities. "Why aren't people buying Luisa more, there is literally a 66% chance of winning and they have her priced at 34%!!!" wrote trader marto367, questioning the market's efficiency.

The market has maintained consistent daily trading volume, with particularly active trading during key campaign events and poll releases. The probability spread between the two main candidates has widened gradually over the past month.

A potential second round runoff remains a key factor in traders' calculations. "Second round incoming," noted trader FiducianFlow, suggesting the initial February vote may not produce a definitive winner.