European supermarket shelves could become emptier as climate change and biodiversity loss threaten food production in countries that export to the EU, according to a report published this week by UK-based consultancy Foresight Transitions. The study examined six major food imports and found that more than half come from countries highly exposed to climate shocks and lacking resources to adapt. AllAfrica reports that over two-thirds of EU food imports including cocoa, coffee, soy, rice, wheat and maize in 2023 came from countries unprepared for climate change.

The report warns these threats are already affecting businesses, jobs, and food availability for consumers. Camilla Hyslop, one of the report's authors, said climate impacts worsen biodiversity loss, making farms and ecosystems less resilient to shocks.

Chocolate Industry Faces Unprecedented Supply Crisis

The EU is the world's biggest consumer, producer and exporter of chocolate, but most of its cocoa imports come from five countries experiencing growing environmental pressures. The Express Tribune notes that 97% of EU cocoa imports come from countries with poor climate preparedness and 77% from nations with degraded biodiversity.

West African nations including Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Cameroon and Nigeria supply the bulk of EU cocoa but face overlapping climate and biodiversity impacts. Confectionery News reports cocoa prices hit a 60-year high in 2025, forcing chocolate manufacturers like Barry Callebaut, Mondelēz and Hershey to cut production and revise earnings forecasts.

The International Cocoa Organization expects a global shortfall of about 374,000 tonnes for the 2023-2024 season. Excessive rainfall in Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire during the fourth quarter of 2023 led to swollen shoot virus and black pod disease outbreaks.

Rice And Other Agricultural Commodities Under Pressure

Rice imports also face substantial threats. More than a third of total EU rice supply, worth €1.5 billion annually, is under threat from increasing climate impacts. ESM Magazine reports that wheat, maize and cocoa face biodiversity-related impacts amplifying supply threats.

In 2022, Pakistan lost 80 percent of its rice harvest due to severe flooding. The country serves as a major rice exporter to Europe. Similar disruptions affected European production in 2023, with flooding in the UK and France reducing wheat yields while high temperatures in Eastern Europe damaged maize crops.

SupplyChainBrain analysis shows agricultural supply chains are particularly vulnerable because just 15 crops provide 90% of non-animal-based calories consumed globally. The agricultural industry accounts for 30% of the world's greenhouse gas emissions according to Columbia University researchers.

Economic And Market Implications

The EU has doubled its maize imports over the past 10 years despite production setbacks. The total value of cocoa imports increased by 41% over the last year due to environmental pressures. Boston Consulting Group research modeling 15 key crops found rising global temperatures and extreme weather events significantly impact agricultural productivity and commodity prices.

Food systems already struggle with one-third of global food production lost or wasted, while one in 11 people globally faces food insecurity according to the World Health Organization. Earth.Org reports climate disruptions lead to increased costs throughout food supply chains that ultimately reach consumers.

Traditional financial institutions face pressure as climate impacts affect agricultural lending and investment. Alternative financing approaches may become necessary to support climate resilience investments in partner countries.

Global Context And Future Outlook

The Foresight Transitions report says shifting food production back to Europe is not realistic. Many crops cannot be grown easily in the EU, and the continent faces its own climate and biodiversity pressures. Director Mark Workman told FranceInfo that relocation would be largely insufficient, with priority needed to strengthen climate resilience of producers in partner countries.

World Bank analysis shows the number of people suffering acute food insecurity increased from 135 million in 2019 to 345 million in 82 countries by June 2022. Global warming influences weather patterns causing heat waves, heavy rainfall, and droughts that affect agricultural production.

Without solutions, falling crop yields could push an estimated 43 million people in Africa below the poverty line by 2030. The findings reflect broader global trends as geopolitical instability and climate changes disrupt established agricultural production regions.

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