Chinese Factory Output Edges Higher But Stays Below Expansion Threshold
According to CNBC, China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose to 49.2 in November from 49.0 in October. The National Bureau of Statistics released the data on Sunday, November 30, 2025. The reading matched economist forecasts in a Reuters poll but stayed below the 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction.
The manufacturing sector has now contracted for eight consecutive months since April 2025. Production reached the neutral mark of 50.0 in November, up from 49.7 in October. New orders climbed to 49.2 from 48.8 the previous month. New export orders rose to 47.6 from 45.9 in October but remained in contraction territory.
Business sentiment showed modest improvement, according to Huo Lihui, chief statistician at the bureau's Service Industry Survey Center. Small enterprises experienced a rebound, with their PMI jumping 2 percentage points to 49.1, the highest level in nearly six months. Large manufacturers weakened, falling to 49.3.
Economic Pressures Mount On Recovery
The persistent contraction reflects weak domestic demand and external headwinds affecting the world's second-largest economy. Reuters reports that manufacturers struggle with subdued consumption despite government stimulus measures. The data comes as policymakers face a dilemma over whether to pursue structural reforms or increase stimulus to boost demand.
The non-manufacturing PMI, covering services and construction, fell to 49.5 from 50.1 in October. This represented the first contraction since December 2022. Services activity dropped below 50 for the first time since September 2024, reaching its lowest point since December 2023. The decline occurred as the boost from October's Golden Week holiday faded.
Real estate and residential services continued to perform below the 50 mark. Construction activity improved to 49.6, supported by stronger expectations for near-term growth. The sector's sentiment index climbed to 57.9.
Regional Manufacturing Landscape Shifts
China's extended manufacturing slowdown occurs as other Asian economies position themselves for growth. Interact Analysis projects global manufacturing output to grow between 3% and 5% annually from 2025 to 2029. Emerging economies in India and ASEAN countries demonstrate high growth potential despite China's slower pace.
Vietnam, Indonesia, and Thailand benefit as companies search for alternative trading partners. Removing China, Japan, and South Korea from Asian forecasts increases the compound annual growth rate for emerging Asian markets from 4.5% to 5.3% through 2029. Singapore and Taiwan carve out niches in semiconductor production and testing.
The World Bank projects China's GDP growth at 4.5% in 2025 and 4.0% in 2026. Export growth is expected to decelerate from 2024 levels despite frontloading in the first half of 2025. Fiscal policy remains the main lever for mitigating trade policy uncertainty and supporting GDP growth.
Further Reading
For deeper insights into how manufacturing trends and economic policies reshape regional dynamics, our Alternative Financial Systems Index examines regulatory frameworks, adoption metrics, and economic indicators across 50 countries. The index provides comprehensive data on how nations adapt their financial and industrial structures amid global economic shifts.
