Polymarket

Bitcoin Reaches $95,000 by December 31, 2025 Shows 3% Probability on Polymarket

George Cranston

29 Dec 2025 — 3 min read

Prediction market traders assign just a 3% chance that Bitcoin will reach $95,000 by the end of 2025. The market on Polymarket currently prices Yes shares at 3.4 cents and No shares at 96.9 cents. This outcome has drawn $6.9 million in trading volume within a broader event totaling $181.4 million.

Bitcoin closed 2024 at $93,508 after reaching an all-time high of $108,135 on December 16. The cryptocurrency gained 121% over the year despite finishing December below its monthly peak. Current price stands near $87,000 as of December 29, 2024.

The market resolves to Yes if any one-minute candle on Binance shows a high price of $95,000 or greater between December 2 and December 31, 2025. Resolution relies exclusively on Binance BTCUSDT trading pair data. Other exchanges and trading pairs have no bearing on the outcome.

Why are traders so confident Bitcoin will not reach $95,000 in 2025?

Market participants price substantially higher odds for Bitcoin to remain near $80,000 through year-end 2025. Polymarket data shows 30% probability for Bitcoin finishing 2025 near $80,000. The $95,000 target sits 8.5% above current trading levels.

Technical indicators show mixed momentum as Bitcoin trades below key moving averages. The 50-day simple moving average stands at $94,650 while the 200-day average sits at $89,600. Relative Strength Index reads 53, placing it in neutral territory without clear directional bias.

Bitcoin's 2024 performance included a 75% drawdown from November 2021 highs before recovery began. The cryptocurrency took over two years to return to previous peak levels. Historical patterns suggest volatility remains possible even after strong annual returns.

How does the $95,000 market compare to other Bitcoin price predictions on Polymarket?

Polymarket offers multiple price targets for Bitcoin in 2025 with varying probability assessments. The $100,000 level shows 1% odds with $9.1 million in volume. Higher targets like $120,000 draw less than 0.2% probability and $8.1 million in trading activity.

The platform also prices downside scenarios with $80,000 target receiving 3% probability and $7.5 million in volume. This matches the $95,000 upside odds despite being 8.5% below current prices. Market structure reflects uncertainty about direction rather than strong conviction either way.

Total event volume exceeds $181 million across all price outcomes ranging from $20,000 to $1 million. Most trading concentrates near current price levels between $80,000 and $120,000. Extreme outcomes above $200,000 draw minimal volume despite generating discussion.

What factors could influence whether Bitcoin reaches $95,000 in 2025?

Federal Reserve monetary policy remains a primary consideration for Bitcoin price direction in 2025. Rate cuts initiated in late 2024 may continue if economic data supports easing. However, inflation persistence above targets could limit further cuts.

Institutional adoption through spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds continues shaping market dynamics. Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024 accumulated billions in assets during the year. Sustained inflows could support higher prices while outflows would pressure valuations.

The April 2024 halving event reduced Bitcoin block rewards from 6.25 to 3.125 coins. Historical halvings preceded price increases within 12-18 months. Hash rate climbed 40% post-halving despite reduced miner rewards, demonstrating network strength.

Regulatory developments in major markets may affect Bitcoin accessibility and institutional participation. Europe implemented the Markets in Crypto-Assets framework in 2024. United States regulatory clarity remains uncertain following election outcomes.

Bitcoin ended 2024 with 53.6% market dominance among cryptocurrencies excluding stablecoins. This represents a gain from earlier in the year as investors favored established assets. Dominance trends correlate with overall market sentiment and risk appetite.